UPDATED: Kentucky Oaks Day picks

kentucky-Oaks2017

Updated to reflect even more scratches on a cold rainy day at Churchill Downs. Track sloppy. Turf good.

Race 1 – Street Biz, 2. Naylor, 3. Song of Spring. Comment: Street Biz is capable of beating these. Naylor should improve switching to dirt.

Race 2 – 1. Tiger Eyes, 2. Northwest Bourbon, 3. Malibu Bonnie. Comment: Tiger Eyes had a troubled trip last out and figures to improve. Northwest Bourbon drops from stakes company and back to a sprint where she may be more effective.

Race 3 – 1. Daria’s Angel, 2. Stonetacular, 3. Elate. Comment: This race for three-year-old fillies could provide some clues for the Longines Kentucky Oaks later as a number of these were in Oaks preps. Daria’s Angel exits one of the deeper Oaks preps and is the choice. Stonetacular looks to be pointed for a spot like this. Elate returns after pulling up in the Grade I Ashland Stakes and Keeneland Race Course and would not surprise.

Race 4 – 1. Maquette, 2. Sassy Little Lila, 3. Princess Princess. Comment: Maquette looks primed for this turn back in distance with her second American start.

Race 5 | Grade I LaTroienne Stakes | 1 1/16 miles

1. Paid Up Subscriber
2. Streamline
3. Eskenformoney
4. Go Maggie Go

Comment: With the scratch of Finest City, Paid Up Subscriber should improve in second start of the year after a solid 2017 debut in the Grade I Madison. She is undefeated at Churchill. Streamline offers a little value (not as much after the scratch of Finest City, who is entered Saturday) and has been in the money in both her Churchill starts.

Race 6 | Grade II Alysheba Stakes | 1 1/16 miles 

1. Breaking Lucky
2. Honorable Duty
3. American Freedom
4. Noble Bird

Comment: Breaking Lucky can turn the tables from his last start against Honorable Duty with the shorter distance. Those two figure to be one-two at the wire. American Freedom may be the classiest but this seems a big ask off of a long layoff — despite training well.

Race 7 | Grade III Twin Spires Turf Sprint | 5 furlongs turf 

1. Green Mask
2. Holding Gold
3. Why Two
4. Pure Sensation

Comment: Green Mask is working well and has show ability both laying close to the pace and coming from farther back. That tactical adaptability will be key in coming from the outside post, which actually could be an advantage here. Holding Gold also has shown that ability and beat Green Mask in last. Why Two is training well, but, as mentioned in the race before, is a big ask off the layoff.

Race 8 |Grade II Eight Belles Stakes | 7 furlongs 

1. Florida Fabulous
2. Union Strike
3. Ghalia
4. Lovely Bernadette

Comment: Florida Fabulous has gone wire-to-wire in both her wins and could here as well. Union Strike would not surprise in her second off a layoff.

Race 9 — 1. Goats Town, 2. Tom’s d’Etat, 3. Gangster. Comment: Goats Town drops in class and offers value. Tom’s d’Etat is moving up in class but can improve in second start of the year.

Race 10 | Grade III Edgewood Stakes | 1 1/16 miles turf 

1. Proctor’s Ledge
2. La Coronel
3. Storm the Hill
4. Dream Dancing

Comment: Proctor’s Ledge had a troubled trip at Keeneland in the Appalachian and only should improve with the distance. La Coronel won the Appalachian and is a logical contender here as the expected favorite. Storm the Hill has experience at Churchill after being on the west coast this winter and offers value with a legitimate shot to hit the board.

Race 11 | Grade I Longines Kentucky Oaks | 1 1/8 miles
Analysis here.

Race 12 – 1. American Cleopatra, 2. Friend of Liberty, 3. Minnie Blip. Comment: American Cleopatra steps down in class at the track where her brother American Pharoah started his Triple Crown campaign. She cuts back in distance and seems logical here (but will be bet heavily because of her brother).

Race 13 – 1. Kitten’s Gold, 2. Long Night, 3. McCormick. Comment: Kitten’s Gold can improve in his second start of the year. Long Night just missed in last out.

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