2017 Kentucky Derby Day picks from start to finish

2017_Kentucky_Derby_logoThese picks have been revised to reflect the scratches announced by Churchill Downs on an early list and by trainers of Miss Temple City and World Approval announced on social media.

Race 1 – 1. Wholehearted, 2. Seventh Tee, 3. No Fault. Comment: Wholehearted gets the nod in what appears to be a wide-open lid lifter on Kentucky Derby Day.

Race 2 – 1. Awesome Saturday, 2. No Mo Dough, 3. Donwell. Comment: Awesome Saturday can improve in his third start.

Race 3 – 1. Idolo Porteno, 2. Donegal Moon, 3. Mo Tom. Comment: Idolo Porteno should improve in second start of the year, but couldn’t be singled in multi-race bets.

Race 4 – 1. Souper Fly Over, 2. Perfect Partner, 3. Caviar Czar. Comment: Liking the second off the layoff angle for Souper Fly Over.

Race 5 – 1. Forge, 2. War Envoy, 3. Sir Dudley Digges. Comment: Forge looks huge in this spot in his second U.S. start. War Envoy has been respectable in last two and can improve.

Race 6 |Grade I Humana Distaff | 7 furlongs 

1. Finest City
2. Paulassilverlining
3. Carina Mia
4. Lightstream

Comment: Finest City scratches out of an Oaks day race to run here and seems to be every bit as much of a deserving favorite here. Paulassilverlining is the best chance for an upset in her second start of the year after a debut win in the Grade I Madison at Keeneland Race Course.

Race 7 | Grade II Churchill Distaff Turf Mile Stakes | 1 mile turf

1. Roca Rojo
2. Hillhouse High
3. Believe in Bertie
4. Harmonize

Comment: The scratch of Miss Temple City makes Roca Rojo the pick, having finished second by a nose to Miss Temple City in their most recent.

Race 8 | Grade III Pat Day Mile Stakes | 1 mile 

1. Excitations
2. Bobby On Fleek
3. Local Hero
4. Uncontested

Comment: Excitations figures to be forwardly placed, which is the style that has prevailed the last couple days, and can pounce at a price. Bobby On Fleek exits a New York-bred race, but has the speed to compete. Local Hero drops back in class and distance, which help his chances.

Race 9 | Grade II American Turf Stakes | 1 1/16 miles turf 

1. Good Samaritan
2. Oscar Performance
3. Conquest Farenheit
4. Big Score

Comment: Good Samaritan exits the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and can win at a bit of a price. Oscar Performance is the most probable winner having won the Juvenile Turf and already had his 2017 debut, but will be the the favorite.

Race 10 | Grade II Churchill Downs Stakes | 7 furlongs 

1. Masochistic
2. Awesome Slew
3. Denman’s Call
4. El Kabeir

Comment: Masochistic should improve in his second start of the year and only missed a length to Denman’s Call in their last. Awesome Slew gets the rail, which has been a plus at Churchill this week. Denman’s Call is capable but had the advantage on Masochistic in their last out of having two prior starts.

Race 11 | Grade I Woodford Reserve Turf Classic Stakes | 1 1/8 miles turf 

1. Bal a Bali
2. Divisidero
3. Beach Patrol
4. Conquest Panthera

Comment: Bal a Bali comes off a Grade I win that followed a layoff of almost nine months. Divisidero seeks to repeat last year’s win and should have every chance.

Race 12 | Grade I Kentucky Derby | 1 1/4 miles
Picks and analysis here.

Race 13 – 1. Visionary Tale, 2. Rockin Rudy, 3. Hard Scramble. Comment: A front-runner on the rail fits the pattern of recent days. Rockin Rudy cuts back in class and distance and should have a say. Hard Scramble is a front runner but will have to overcome an outside post position.

Race 14 – 1. Souper Wish, 2. Wicked Macho, 3. Unk. Comment: Souper Wish narrowly missed in debut and looms large here. Wicked Macho is working bullets routinely for his debut. Unk can improve in his second start.

 

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