UPDATED to reflect late scratches.
Race 1 – 1. Tiz Mischief, 2. Mo’s Mojo, 3. Hollywood Star. Comment: Tiz Mischief drops in class and may be a step above the competition.
Race 2 | Cherokee Run Stakes | 7 furlongs
1. Super Sol
2. Still Having Fun
3. Dak Attack
4. Smart Remark
Comment: Florida Derby winner Audible is in this spot off of his third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He’s the class of this field but could be vulnerable in his first start in six months. Super Sol and Still Having Fun are equally posed to get the upset, with a slight edge to Super Sol who is in his fourth start.
Race 3 | Grade I Grade I Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint | 7 furlongs
1. Golden Mischief
3. Marley’s Freedom
Comment: Golden Mischief enters off a win in the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America and a bullet work and looks primed at what could be a good price. Chalon was second to Golden Mischief in the TCA and deserves respect finishing first or second in nine of 12 lifetime starts. Marley’s Freedom is too short a price in the morning line for liking, especially from the outside post — though at seven furlongs there’s a long run to the turn.
Race 4 | Grade I Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint | 5 1/2 furlongs turf
1. Havana Grey
2. Lost Treasure
3. Disco Partner
Comment: Havana Grey is a Group 1-winning sprinter in France and offers value with a post position that probably is more favorable than being at the hedge. Lost Treasure loses the blinkers after being second a half-length in his last start. Disco Partner, who was third in this race a year ago, is the top domestic contender and would be no surprise. This is not a race to skimp on in multi-race exotics.
Race 5 | Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile| 1 mile
1. City of Light
2. Catalina Cruiser
3. Giant Expectations
4. Seven Trumpets
Comment: City of Light has been working well and has the quality to win this. Catalina Cruiser is super consistent and must be included on multi-race tickets. Giant Expectations and Seven Trumpets are longshots for the win but loom large for the exotics.
Race 6 | Grade I Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf | 1 3/8 miles turf
1. Wild Illusion
2. Magic Wand
4. A Raving Beauty
Comment: Wild Illusion comes off two Group 1 wins and had another last year and should be able to handle this. Magic Wand was second last out to Wild Illusion, but bested that one in a Group 2 in June and is the main threat. Sistercharlie is the main U.S. threat.
Race 7 | Grade I TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint | 6 furlongs
1. Roy H
2. Promises Fulfilled
3. Imperial Hint
Comment: Roy H is the defending champ and is repeating last year’s path to the race — second in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby and then a win in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (Grade 1). Copy and paste last year’s result. Promises Fulfilled has been running his eyeballs out since finishing 15th in the Kentucky Derby and is the main threat. Imperial Hint was runner up to Roy H and could turn the tables.
Race 8 | Grade I Breeders’ Cup Mile | 1 mile turf
1. Expert Eye
2. I Can Fly
3. Gustav Klimt
4. One Master
Comment: Expert Eye gets Frankie Dettori back in the irons and offers value. I Can Fly was a neck behind Roaring Lion in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Royal Ascot.
Race 9 | Grade I Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff | 1 1/8 miles
1. Monomoy Girl
2. Blue Prize
3. Wow Cat
4. Wonder Gadot
Comment: Grade 1 Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Monomoy Girl has been a freak all year and loves the track. Argentinian-bred Blue Prize comes off a Grade 1 Spinster Stakes and boasts three wins in five starts at Churchill (the other two were seconds). Chilean-bred and raced Wow Cat comes off a Grade 1 Beldame Invitational win and is peaking entering her fourth U.S. start. Wonder Gadot returns to the scene of her second-place finish in the Oaks. Abel Tasman, the 2017 Oaks winner, is a major player if she’s at her best, but is hard to endorse here off her last and at the price she’ll be.
Race 10 | Grade I Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf | 1 1/2 miles turf
4. Glorious Empire
Comment: I tried to find something I could endorse more than the two-time Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner Enable, but she looks great and is a deserving favorite. Waldgeist was fourth behind her and figures to be in the thick of it. Magical was disappointing in the Arc but won the Group 1 QIPCO British Champions Fillies & Mares and looms large.
Race 11 | Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic | 1 1/4 miles
1. Thunder Snow
3. West Coast
4. Mind Your Biscuits
Comment: Thunder Snow should improve in his third off the layoff from his win in the Dubai World Cup. He’s back at the site of his most awkward performance where he did not finish in the Kentucky Derby of 2017 after bucking in the stretch and coining the unfortunate noun, a “Thunder Snow.” He’ll give that new meaning as he did in Dubai. He’s no single though. The Bob Baffert duo of McKinzie and West Coast are the next most logical to include, and Mind Your Biscuits looks like a real threat (which I wasn’t thinking I’d say). Accelerate has done nothing wrong and the outside post isn’t a concern, but who has he beaten? That’s the reason for tossing (so bet him with both fists).
Race 12 | Grade II Chilukki Stakes | 1 mile
2. Divine Miss Grey
3. Shenandoah Queen
Comment: Berned drops in class and provides value. Divine Miss Grey is the most logical, but offers no value. Shenandoah Queen should appreciate the cutback in distance.